陳毓雷

A Study on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting for Tahan Watershed

Yulei Chen

Abstract

　　The introduction of CLIPER method into this particular area of Taiwan in predicting the typhoon movement proved quite successful in the previous study on flood forecasting for Nan-young River watershed (1976). Thus the curvilinear multiple regression technique was again applied on 690 cases of typhoons (1959-1974) to obtain 6 predicting equations which will give the future track of any storm in the vicinity of Taiwan for the next 48 hours.

　　The estimation of the total amount, the duration and the hourly distribution of rainfall, within the area of Ta-han River watershed, for the storm of interest is based on both the predicted track and the average precipitation pattern of the past storms of which the tracks were essentially the same. The estimation thus obtained will be used as the input data for flood forecasting.