冷季氣壓系統及台灣天氣客觀預報之硏究
——低壓部份——

俞家忠

Abstract

　　This is the second part of the “objective methods for forecasting pressure systems and their associated weather over Taiwan in the cold season”-the low pressure. After reanalyzing the surface and upper Air Charts in the area concerned through 1964 to 1973 (November to next May). We proceeded our studies using theoretical and statistical methods as follow:

1. Twelve sets of equations for forecasting the movement and intensity of low pressure center for 12, 24, 36 and 48 hours have been developed by means of stepwise multiple correlation method.
2. In order to understand the initial development of cyclones over southern China south of 35 degree north latitude. An investigation has been made and some useful results were obtained.
3. A scattered diagram, in which ten-years local weather were plotted at the location of low pressure centers, has been obtained for each cold month of stations including Taipei, Hsinchu, Ching-Chuan-Kung, Chia-Yi Pingtung, Hwalian, Makung, and Kinmen. The statistical results could be used together with a forecast location of low pressure to forecast a station weather.

　　This study will be helpful to economic and national defense of this country, by improving the accuracy of forecasting the movement and intensity of low pressure centers, the formation of frontal waves and the weather phenomena over different parts of Taiwan.