颱風接近中央山脈時之路徑分析與預報

王時鼎　葉文欽　張儀峯

ABSTRACT

　　24 different typhoon tracks were grouped for forecasting purpose. Furthermore we attempted to explain the actual changes of typhoon tracks with the following arguments, i.e., (a) the flow around a circular cylinder with circulation, (b) the flow past an inclined plate and elliptic cylinder, (c) laboratory simulations with a free vortex encountering the orogrphical mode! of Taiwan. Concerning the forecast method we have worked out：(a) the relationship between the change of the typhoon’s circulations and that of their tracks, (b) the frequency diagram for the direction of motion of typhoon in an area 1 deg. latitude by 1 deg. longitude, (c) objective forecast method for the speed of typhoon in the vicinity of Taiwan, (d) exploration of unusual changes of typhoon tracks.