陳毓雷 鮑學禮

Prediction of Typhoon Movement and Intensity by Statistical Methods Yulei Chen S.L. Baw

Abstract

　　The screening multiple regression technique is applied to the prediction of typhoon movement and intensity. There are 169 predictors to be selected from. As a result, 9 equations arc derived through the analysis of a dependent sample of 545 observations. The Predictands are northward, westward displacements and the minimum pressure of the typhoon center, each in 3 different forecasting periods, namely 24, 36, and 48 hours. All predictors and predictands information are obtained on the basis of a moving coor-dinats system.

　　When tested on independent date of 60 cases, the forecasting equations yield an average err which compare favorably with any other single method in existence except NHC-67 of NHRL. However, the intensity equations turn out to be a failure like the similar experiments made before. The above facts indicate that there is still room for improvement of typhoon prediction in this area.