數值預報實驗結果分析與檢討

劉廣英

A General Survey on the Results of CAFNWP

Koung-Ying Liu

Abstract

　　The results of the barotropic and equivalent barotropic models used by Chinese Air Force (CAFNWP) are analyzed. We found that both models give reliable predictions, especially for the major systems. The standard deviations of the predicted major trough of the modles are 1.26 and 1.10, respectively, in favor of the second. We also use the models to predict the movement of Typhoons which invaded Taiwan in 1975, the results are, by comparison, no worse than those of the other objective methods. Some problems of these two models are also are discussed in the paper.