賈鳳基

Typhoon Rainfall Objective Forecast Methods For The Key Stations In Taiwan

Feng-Chi Chia

Abstract

　　This is a statistical study based on the typhoons sweeping over Taiwan area from 1949 to 1975. In this report we divide the typhoons into six patterns according to their tracks. For each pattern, we select wind speed, rainfall, the radius of typhoon, and the distance from typhoon center to the station as forecasting factors. Then we use the wind speed as the vertical axis, and the ratio of the distance to the typhoon radius as the horizontal axis with rainfall amount attached to each station Furthermore, the typhoon rainfall objective forcast diagrams for Taipei, Chiayi and Sun-Moon-Lake were prepared with the same factors mentioned above.

In addition, we employed the separate data of typhoon Billie in 1976 for verification, and an 80% reliable rate was found.