普松分佈及負二項分佈在颱風降水頻率上之應用

戴治台　徐鍇　馬汝安

Application of the Poisson and Negative-Binomial Models to the Frequency of Typhoon and Precipitation

Chih-Tai Tai, Kae Shyu, Ruu-Ann Ma,

Abstract

　　In any quantitative analysis, one of the most important procedures is to find the probability distribution models of these random variables. Using Poisson distribution function and Negative-Binomial distribution function as models, we read in (i) the number of typhoon occured in west Pacific Ocean area (110°E~160°E, 5°N~55°N) durning the period from 1892 to 1971. (ii) the number of typhoon which invaded Taiwan durning the same period, (iii) the number of precipitation days and thunderstorm days at Taipei (1897~1970) and Ilan (1936~1970). And use Chi-Square distribution with n^-1 degree of freedom at the 0.05 level of significance to test the validity of these models.
　　We find at least one of these two distributions can be used as model for these choised random variables at 95% confidence.