鄧施人 張儀峯

A verification of the 5—day weather predications made by the method of analogy in Taiwan area

Shih-jen Teng.       I-feng Chang

Abstract

In this paper we discussed how to get the similar charts between the latest and historical charts through following the steps：

1. analyzing the latest data, which containes SFC, 850mb, 700mb and 500mb charts, emphasises are on the major pressure systems which may govern handling the weather in Taiwan area on the futnre 5 days ；
2. finding out the similar charts from the 1800 historical SFC charts, comparing with the location, intensity of the pressure systems, and the shape of isobar, first,
3. then selecting the best one by comparing on the order of SFC, 700mb, 850mb, and 500mb charts on the same day,
4. checking the type of the weather in Taiwan area in passing days for a final decision. . The averge of standard rate is 20.5/32 that was verified from the routine operation during Dec. 7, 1973 – Mar. 6, 1974. And the result is quite promising that the first day’s is 25.5/32, then decreasing continually to 17.5/32 on the last day.