危害飛行氣象因素客觀預報之硏究
——續雷雨部份——

林則銘

Abstract

　　Thunderstorms and rainshowers occured due to thermal and terrain effects in the period from June through September, are two of the most dangerous hazards for aircraft flight. Based on the rawinsonde observation data taken from 1971 to 1975 (514 days) at Makung and Tungkong, and the surface observation data taken at the same period and days at Kangshan, Pingtung N.B, Hwalang, Tai-tung, Makungr, Kimman, and Shokong, and the position and orientation of fronts, ITCZ, and tropical storms presented at the same period and days; and by use of the statistical and weather analysis methods, the objective diagrams for forecast of thunderstorms for each of the above mentioned seven surface stations have been obtained. By use of those diagrams, the probabilities of occurrence and nonoccurrence of thunderstorm and rainshower can be predicted more accurately. Thus, the flying safety of both military and civil aircrafts can be also insured.

　　每年六至九月間因熱力及地形影響而生成之之雷雨及陣雨，爲對飛行最有危害之天氣。本硏究係根據民國六十年至六十四年六至九月份（共514日）桃園及東港二處之探空資料，及岡山、屏東(北機場)、花蓮、臺東、馬公、金門及高雄小港民用機場之地面觀測資料，配合當時天氣圖內鋒面、ITCZ及熱帯氣旋之位置及走向，統計分析作出上述七地面測站之雷雨及陣雨之客觀預報圖表，對雷雨及陣雨發生及不發生之機率，可作較正確及客觀之預報。故本硏究之結果對保障軍用及民用飛機之飛行安全極有助益。