{"id":39053,"date":"2023-03-15T21:32:51","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T13:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/?post_type=doc_journal&#038;p=39053"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:52:32","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T13:52:32","slug":"%e4%bb%a5%e5%a4%9a%e8%ae%8a%e9%87%8f%e8%b2%9d%e6%b0%8f%e7%b3%bb%e9%9b%86%e8%99%95%e7%90%86%e5%99%a8%e9%85%8d%e5%90%88%e7%90%83%e9%9d%a2%e8%aa%bf%e5%92%8c%e5%87%bd%e6%95%b8%e6%b3%a2%e6%ae%b5%e6%8b%86","status":"publish","type":"doc_journal","link":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/doc_journal\/%e4%bb%a5%e5%a4%9a%e8%ae%8a%e9%87%8f%e8%b2%9d%e6%b0%8f%e7%b3%bb%e9%9b%86%e8%99%95%e7%90%86%e5%99%a8%e9%85%8d%e5%90%88%e7%90%83%e9%9d%a2%e8%aa%bf%e5%92%8c%e5%87%bd%e6%95%b8%e6%b3%a2%e6%ae%b5%e6%8b%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ee5\u591a\u8b8a\u91cf\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7cfb\u96c6\u8655\u7406\u5668\u914d\u5408\u7403\u9762\u8abf\u548c\u51fd\u6578\u6ce2\u6bb5\u62c6\u89e3\u9032\u884c\u5c55\u671f\u6975\u7aef\u4f4e\u6eab\u9810\u5831"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u6731\u5fc3\u5b87 \u5f35\u60e0\u73b2*<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u4ea4\u901a\u90e8\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">(\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b 111 \u5e74 7 \u6708 26 \u65e5\u6536\u7a3f\uff1b\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b 111 \u5e74 12 \u6708 6 \u65e5\u5b9a\u7a3f)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u6458 \u8981<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u900f\u904e\u7d71\u8a08\u5f8c\u8655\u7406(statistical post-processing, SPP)\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c07\u539f\u59cb\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u504f\u5dee\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5230\u9ad8\u89e3\u6790\u683c\u9ede\u6216\u7279\u5b9a\u9ede\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ef\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u66f4\u5177\u53c3\u8003\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u9810\u5831\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff1b\u4f46\u504f\u5dee\u4fee\u6b63\u5f80\u5f80\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8a13\u7df4\u6a23\u672c\u4ee5\u4f30\u7b97\u9810\u5831\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5c55\u671f\u7cfb\u96c6\u91cd\u9810\u5831(reforecast)\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u8a08\u7b97\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u525b\u767c\u5c55\u6210\u719f\u4e4b\u7cfb\u96c6\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71\u53ef\u80fd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8db3\u5920\u4e4b\u91cd(\u5f8c)\u9810\u5831\u8cc7\u6599\u4ee5\u9032\u884c\u504f\u5dee\u6821\u6b63\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u64ec\u767c\u5c55\u7d50\u5408\u591a\u8b8a\u91cf\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7cfb\u96c6\u8655\u7406\u5668(Multi-Variate Bayesian Processor of Ensemble, BPE)\u8207\u7403\u9762\u8abf\u548c\u51fd\u6578\u6ce2\u6bb5\u62c6\u89e3(spherical harmonics decomposition, SHD)\u4e4b\u5148\u9032 SPP \u6280\u8853\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u65bc\u63a2\u8a0e\u4ee5\u55ae\u4e00\u9810\u5831\u53d6\u4ee3\u7cfb\u96c6\u9810\u5831\u9032\u884c SPP \u4e4b\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7cfb\u96c6\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5927\u91cf\u8a13\u7df4\u6a23\u672c\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u9032\u884c\u504f\u5dee\u6821\u6b63\u4e4b\u56f0\u5883\u3002<br>\u3000\u3000\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5c07\u539f\u59cb\u7cfb\u96c6\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6a21\u64ec(Control Run)\u9032\u884c SHD\uff0c\u4ee5\u62c6\u89e3\u5f8c\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6ce2\u6bb5\u4f5c\u70ba BPE \u9810\u5831\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u9032\u884c SPP \u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u81fa\u7063\u6e2c\u7ad9\u9ede\u4e0a\u4e4b\u5c55\u671f\u6975\u7aef\u4f4e\u6eab\u6a5f\u7387\u9810\u5831\u3002BPE \u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u5229\u7528\u9810\u5831\u56e0\u5b50\u53ca\u89c0\u6e2c\u503c\u95dc\u806f\u7d50\u69cb\u7522\u751f\u7684\u908a\u7de3\u5206\u5e03\u4f5c\u70ba\u6982\u4f3c\u51fd\u6578(likelihood)\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u89c0\u6e2c\u503c\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u5206\u5e03\u4f5c\u70ba\u5148\u9a57\u51fd\u6578(prior)\uff0c\u518d\u6839\u64da\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u9810\u5831\u8cc7\u6599\u4e88\u4ee5\u7d50\u5408\u6210\u5f8c\u9a57\u51fd\u6578(posterior, \u5373\u70ba\u9810\u5831\u6a5f\u7387\u51fd\u6578)\uff1b\u56e0\u5176\u5b8c\u5168\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7684\u67b6\u69cb\uff0cBPE \u5728\u91cd\u9810\u5831\u8cc7\u6599\u8f03\u5c11\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u89c0\u6e2c\u6c23\u5019\u8cc7\u6599\u5efa\u7acb\u5148\u9a57\u51fd\u6578\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u5f8c\u9a57\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6578\u3002<br>\u3000\u3000\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u74b0\u5883\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7b2c 12 \u7248\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u96c6\u9810\u5831(NCEP GEFS v12)\u4e4b (1)2 \u516c\u5c3a\u6700\u4f4e\u6eab\u7cfb\u96c6\u5e73\u5747\u4f5c\u70ba\u55ae\u8b8a\u91cf BPE \u9810\u5831\u56e0\u5b50 (\u5be6\u9a57 SP_BPE)\u3001(2)\u63a7\u5236\u6a21\u64ec(Control Run)\u4e4b\u6a19\u6e96\u5316 2 \u516c\u5c3a\u6700\u4f4e\u6eab\u62c6\u89e3\u5f8c\u7684\u6ce2\u6bb5\u4f5c\u70ba\u591a\u8b8a\u91cf BPE \u9810\u5831\u56e0\u5b50(\u5be6\u9a57 MP_BPE_SH)\uff0c\u9032\u884c 8 \u81f3 14 \u5929\u4e4b\u65e5\u6975\u7aef\u4f4e\u6eab\u9810\u5831\u4ee5\u53ca\u7b2c\u4e09\u3001\u56db\u9031\u4e4b\u9031\u6975\u7aef\u6eab\u5ea6\u9810\u5831\u6821\u6b63\u3002\u591a\u9805\u6307\u6a19\u986f\u793a\uff1aSP_BPE \u8207 MP_BPE_SH \u5169\u7a2e\u6821\u6b63\u65b9\u5f0f\u7686\u986f\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u539f\u59cb\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u9810\u5831\u54c1\u8cea\uff0c\u4f46 SP_BPE \u6821\u6b63\u6548\u679c\u7565\u512a\u65bc MP_BPE_SH\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u3001\u56db\u9031\u4e4b\u9031\u6975\u7aef\u4f4e\u6eab\u9810\u5831\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7d50\u679c\u61c9\u8207\u9810\u5831\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u53ef\u9810\u5831\u5ea6\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u672a\u4f86\u64ec\u5229\u7528\u53ef\u9810\u5831\u5ea6\u8f03\u9ad8\u4e4b\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6307\u6a19\u505a\u70ba\u591a\u8b8a\u91cf BPE \u7684\u9810\u5831\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u7b2c\u4e09\u3001\u56db\u9031\u9810\u5831\u4e4b\u6821\u6b63\u6210\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95dc\u9375\u5b57: \u8c9d\u6c0f\u7cfb\u96c6\u8655\u7406\u5668\u3001\u7403\u9762\u8abf\u548c\u51fd\u6578\u3001\u6975\u7aef\u6eab\u5ea6\u3001\u5c55\u671f\u9810\u5831\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u5f8c\u8655\u7406<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jet_sm_ready_style":"","_jet_sm_style":"","_jet_sm_controls_values":"","_jet_sm_fonts_collection":"","_jet_sm_fonts_links":"","footnotes":""},"keyword":[3717,3720,3719,3718,3721],"doc_categories":[1540,1535],"class_list":["post-39053","doc_journal","type-doc_journal","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","keyword-3717","keyword-3720","keyword-3719","keyword-3718","keyword-3721","doc_categories-jas-2016-2025","doc_categories-jas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/39053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/doc_journal"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/39053\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=39053"},{"taxonomy":"doc_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_categories?post=39053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}