{"id":3904,"date":"2012-03-15T10:54:39","date_gmt":"2012-03-15T02:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/140.137.32.20\/dbar\/?post_type=manual_kb&#038;p=3904"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:42:28","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T13:42:28","slug":"%e8%87%ba%e7%81%a3%e5%9c%b0%e5%8d%80%e6%9c%88%e9%99%8d%e9%9b%a8%e5%8f%8a%e6%ba%ab%e5%ba%a6-1-%e5%85%ac%e9%87%8c%e7%b6%b2%e6%a0%bc%e8%b3%87%e6%96%99%e5%ba%ab%e4%b9%8b%e5%bb%ba%e7%ab%8b-1960-2009","status":"publish","type":"doc_journal","link":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/doc_journal\/%e8%87%ba%e7%81%a3%e5%9c%b0%e5%8d%80%e6%9c%88%e9%99%8d%e9%9b%a8%e5%8f%8a%e6%ba%ab%e5%ba%a6-1-%e5%85%ac%e9%87%8c%e7%b6%b2%e6%a0%bc%e8%b3%87%e6%96%99%e5%ba%ab%e4%b9%8b%e5%bb%ba%e7%ab%8b-1960-2009\/","title":{"rendered":"\u81fa\u7063\u5730\u5340\u6708\u964d\u96e8\u53ca\u6eab\u5ea6 1 \u516c\u91cc\u7db2\u683c\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u4e4b\u5efa\u7acb (1960-2009)\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u8fd1\u672a\u4f86(2015-2039)\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u63a8\u4f30\u61c9\u7528"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u7fc1\u53d4\u5e73* \u694a\u627f\u9053 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u570b\u7acb\u81fa\u7063\u5e2b\u7bc4\u5927\u5b78\u5730\u7406\u7cfb <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\uff08\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b\u4e00\u25cb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e09\u5341\u65e5\u6536\u7a3f\uff1b\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b\u4e00\u25cb\u4e00\u5e74\u5341\u4e8c\u6708\u4e03\u65e5\u5b9a\u7a3f\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u6458 \u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8490\u96c6\u6563\u7f6e\u65bc\u4e0d\u540c\u55ae\u4f4d\u3001\u6642\u7a7a\u5206\u4f48\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5747\u52fb\u7684\u6e2c\u7ad9\u6708\u964d\u96e8\u91cf\u66a8\u6708\u6eab\u5ea6\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5229\u7528\u6e2c\u7ad9\u7684\u5730\u7406\u8cc7 \u8a0a\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f3a\u5931\u8cc7\u6599\u9032\u884c\u88dc\u907a\uff0c\u5148\u7522\u751f\u6642\u9593\u4e0a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u6e2c\u7ad9\u8cc7\u6599\u5f8c\uff0c\u518d\u5229\u7528\u7a7a\u9593\u5167\u63d2\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7372\u5f97\u4e00\u7d44\u91dd\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063 \u672c\u5cf6\u7684\u9ad8\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\uff081 \u516c\u91cc\uff09\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684(1960\/1\uff5e2009\/12)\u7db2\u683c\u5316\u964d\u96e8\u548c\u6eab\u5ea6\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u3002\u5229\u7528 jackknife procedure\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u6e90\u81ea\u88dc\u907a\u65b9\u6cd5\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u8aa4\u5dee\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u6aa2\u9a57\u4e86\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u6240\u5448\u73fe\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u548c\u6eab\u5ea6\u7684\u5b63 \u7bc0\u5faa\u74b0\u548c\u4ee5\u6069\u7d22(El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ENSO)\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u5e74\u969b\u8b8a\u7570\uff0c\u4e26\u5206\u5225\u8207\u8f03\u7c97\u7cd9\u7684 APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources)\u7db2\u683c\u5316\uff080.25\u00d70.25 \u5ea6\uff09\u964d\u96e8\u8cc7\u6599\u4ee5\u53ca CRU(Climate Research Unit)\u7684\u7db2\u683c\u5316\uff080.5\u00d70.5 \u5ea6\uff09 \u6eab\u5ea6\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u65e5\u672c MRI\/JMA (Japan Meteorological Research Institute\/Meteorological Agency) \u89e3\u6790\u5ea6 20 \u516c\u91cc\u7684\u5340\u57df\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u6240\u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u6b77\u53f2(1979\uff5e2003)\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a8\u4f30\u7684\u8fd1\u672a\u4f86(2015\uff5e2039)\u6a21\u5f0f\u8cc7\u6599 \u5eab\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u61c9\u7528 BCSD (bias-correction and spatial disaggregation )\u7d71\u8a08\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u5230\u7522\u88fd\u7684\u9ad8\u89e3\u6790 \u5ea6\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\uff0c\u91dd\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063\u672c\u5cf6\u5728\u8fd1\u672a\u4f86(2015\uff5e2039)\u7684\u96e8\u91cf\u53ca\u6eab\u5ea6\uff08\u5305\u542b\u5747\u6e29\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u6eab\u8207\u6700\u4f4e\u6e29\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8b8a \u5316\u9032\u884c\u63a8\u4f30\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff1a(1)\u8fd1\u672a\u4f86\u5317\u53f0\u7063\u6625\u5b63\uff084 \u6708\uff09\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u6709\u6e1b\u5c11\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff1b\u5357\u90e8\u5730\u5340\u7684\u590f\u5b63\uff087 \u6708\uff09 \u96e8\u91cf\u5247\u5927\u589e\uff1b(2)\u6eab\u5ea6\u5728\u8fd1\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5247\u5448\u73fe\u666e\u904d\u589e\u6eab\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u590f\u5b63\uff087 \u6708\uff09\u6eab\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u5247 \u5c0f\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5b63\u7bc0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u95dc\u9375\u5b57:\u8cc7\u6599\u88dc\u907a\u3001\u7a7a\u9593\u5167\u63d2\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3001\u5340\u57df\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u63a8\u4f30<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jet_sm_ready_style":"","_jet_sm_style":"","_jet_sm_controls_values":"","_jet_sm_fonts_collection":"","_jet_sm_fonts_links":"","footnotes":""},"keyword":[1991,1992,1989,1990,1988],"doc_categories":[1539,1535],"class_list":["post-3904","doc_journal","type-doc_journal","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","keyword-1991","keyword-1992","keyword-1989","keyword-1990","keyword-1988","doc_categories-jas-2006-2015","doc_categories-jas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/3904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/doc_journal"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/3904\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=3904"},{"taxonomy":"doc_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_categories?post=3904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}