{"id":38395,"date":"2023-03-09T00:11:05","date_gmt":"2023-03-08T16:11:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/?post_type=doc_journal&p=38395"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:52:30","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T13:52:30","slug":"%e8%87%ba%e7%81%a3%e5%9c%b0%e5%8d%80-wrf-%e9%a2%b1%e9%a2%a8%e7%b3%bb%e9%9b%86%e9%99%8d%e9%9b%a8%e6%a9%9f%e7%8e%87%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e4%b9%8b%e8%a9%95%e4%bc%b0%e3%80%81%e6%a0%a1%e6%ad%a3%e8%88%87-3","status":"publish","type":"doc_journal","link":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/doc_journal\/%e8%87%ba%e7%81%a3%e5%9c%b0%e5%8d%80-wrf-%e9%a2%b1%e9%a2%a8%e7%b3%bb%e9%9b%86%e9%99%8d%e9%9b%a8%e6%a9%9f%e7%8e%87%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e4%b9%8b%e8%a9%95%e4%bc%b0%e3%80%81%e6%a0%a1%e6%ad%a3%e8%88%87-3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u81fa\u7063\u5730\u5340 WRF \u98b1\u98a8\u7cfb\u96c6\u964d\u96e8\u6a5f\u7387\u9810\u5831\u4e4b\u8a55\u4f30\u3001\u6821\u6b63\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u50f9\u503c\u5206\u6790\u2500\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206:\u6821\u6b63"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7ae0\u9db4\u7fa4 1<\/sup> \u9673\u51a0\u5112 1<\/sup> \u5289\u8c6b\u81fb 1<\/sup> \u5f35\u60e0\u73b2 2<\/sup> \u6d2a\u666f\u5c71 3<\/sup> \u694a\u8212\u829d 4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup>\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u7b2c\u56db\u7d44
2<\/sup>\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u79d1\u6280\u4e2d\u5fc3
3<\/sup>\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e2d\u5fc3
4<\/sup>\u570b\u7acb\u4e2d\u592e\u5927\u5b78\u5927\u6c23\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b 107 \u5e74 4 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u6536\u7a3f,\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b 107 \u5e74 6 \u6708 27 \u65e5\u5b9a\u7a3f)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6458 \u8981<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40 WRF \u7cfb\u96c6\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71(WRF Ensemble Prediction System, WEPS)\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u98b1\u98a8\u964d\u96e8\u6a5f\u7387\u9810\u5831(probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts, PQPFs),\u5177\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5617\u8a66\u5c0d WEPS \u6240\u505a\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u6a5f\u7387\u9810\u5831\u9032\u884c\u6821\u6b63\u4ee5\u4fee\u6b63\u5176\u504f\u5dee,\u4ee4\u964d\u96e8\u9810\u5831\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u5be6\u7528\u50f9\u503c,\u8b93\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u53c3\u8003\u8a72\u9810\u5831\u7522\u54c1\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u50f9\u503c\u3002
\u3000\u3000\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u5287\u70c8\u5929\u6c23\u76e3\u6e2c\u7cfb\u7d71(QPESUMS)\u7684\u96f7\u9054\u4f30\u8a08\u964d\u96e8\u91cf\u505a\u70ba\u6821\u6b63 WEPS \u964d\u96e8\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u4f9d\u64da,\u6821\u6b63\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u5225\u70ba\u7dda\u6027\u8ff4\u6b78\u6cd5(Linear Regression, LR)\u53ca\u975e\u7dda\u6027\u7684\u985e\u795e\u7d93\u7db2\u8def\u6cd5(Artificial Neural Networks, ANN),\u5206\u6790\u5176\u6821\u6b63\u5f8c\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u8207\u5340\u8fa8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5728\u6821\u6b63\u5be6\u9a57\u4e2d,\u5c07\u8a13\u7df4\u6a23\u672c\u5340\u5206\u70ba\u5168\u5340\u548c\u9678\u5730,\u9678\u5730\u518d\u7d30\u5206\u70ba\u5e73\u5730(\u5730\u5f62\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f4e\u65bc 500 \u516c\u5c3a)\u548c\u5c71\u5340(\u5730\u5f62\u9ad8\u5ea6\u9ad8\u65bc 500 \u516c\u5c3a),\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8a13\u7df4\u6a23\u672c\u5c0d\u65bc\u6821\u6b63\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u3002
\u3000\u3000\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u767c\u73fe,\u7dda\u6027\u7684 LR \u548c\u975e\u7dda\u6027\u7684 ANN \u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u80fd\u5920\u6210\u529f\u5730\u4fee\u6b63 WEPS \u7684\u964d\u96e8\u9810\u5831\u3002\u6821\u6b63\u5f8c\u660e\u986f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6,\u4e14\u5c0d\u65bc\u964d\u96e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ecd\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u5340\u8fa8\u80fd\u529b,\u900f\u904e Brier Skill Score( BrSS )\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5247\u8b49\u660e\u6821\u6b63\u5f8c\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u800c\u5c07\u8a13\u7df4\u6a23\u672c\u4fb7\u9650\u5728\u9678\u5730,\u80fd\u5920\u5c07\u9810\u5831\u7d50\u679c\u6821\u6b63\u5230\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b8c\u7f8e\u53ef\u4fe1(Perfectly reliable),\u4e26\u5c0d\u964d\u96e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5340\u8fa8\u80fd\u529b\u826f\u597d,\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u63d0\u5347\u3002
\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e:\u7cfb\u96c6\u964d\u96e8\u6a5f\u7387\u9810\u5831\u3001\u8ff4\u6b78\u6cd5\u3001\u985e\u795e\u7d93\u7db2\u8def\u6cd5<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jet_sm_ready_style":"","_jet_sm_style":"","_jet_sm_controls_values":"","_jet_sm_fonts_collection":"","_jet_sm_fonts_links":"","footnotes":""},"keyword":[3695,3698,3699],"doc_categories":[],"class_list":["post-38395","doc_journal","type-doc_journal","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","keyword-3695","keyword-3698","keyword-3699"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/38395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/doc_journal"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38395"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/38395\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=38395"},{"taxonomy":"doc_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_categories?post=38395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}