{"id":29879,"date":"2022-11-20T21:02:45","date_gmt":"2022-11-20T13:02:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/?post_type=manual_documentation&#038;p=29879"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:49:23","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T13:49:23","slug":"%e4%bb%a5%e5%a4%9a%e8%ae%8a%e6%95%b8%e6%99%82%e9%96%93%e5%ba%8f%e5%88%97%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f%e6%a8%a1%e6%93%ac%e5%8f%8a%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e5%8d%97%e6%96%b9%e9%9c%87%e7%9b%aa","status":"publish","type":"doc_journal","link":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/doc_journal\/%e4%bb%a5%e5%a4%9a%e8%ae%8a%e6%95%b8%e6%99%82%e9%96%93%e5%ba%8f%e5%88%97%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f%e6%a8%a1%e6%93%ac%e5%8f%8a%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e5%8d%97%e6%96%b9%e9%9c%87%e7%9b%aa\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ee5\u591a\u8b8a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u5f0f\u6a21\u64ec\u53ca\u9810\u5831\u5357\u65b9\u632f\u76ea"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u4ee5\u591a\u8b8a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u5f0f\u6a21\u64ec\u53ca\u9810\u5831\u5357\u65b9\u632f\u76ea<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u5433\u660e\u9032  \u718a\u81fa\u7389<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u570b\u7acb\u81fa\u7063\u5927\u5b78\u5927\u6c23\u79d1\u5b78\u7cfb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">(\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b\u4e03\u5341\u516b\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e09\u5341\u65e5\u6536\u7a3f\uff1b\u4e5d\u6708\u5341\u65e5\u5b9a\u7a3f)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u6458\u8981<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u61c9\u7528\u81ea\u76f8\u95dc\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747(ARMA)\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u5f0f\u5206\u6790\u5357\u65b9\u632f\u76ea\u5728\u6642\u9593\u57df\u7684\u7279\u6027,\u4e26\u9032\u884c\u9810\u5831\u3002Chu and<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Katz (1985)\u4ee5\u55ae\u8b8a\u6578ARMA\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f5cTahiti \u6e1bDarwin \u6c23\u58d3\u5dee\u7684\u5357\u65b9\u632f\u76c8\u6307\u6578(SOI)\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51faAR(3)\u6a21\u5f0f\u80fd\u5920\u63cf\u8ff0\u5b63SOI\u7684\u8b8a\u5316,\u4e5f\u80fd\u9069\u5207\u7684\u9810\u5831\u5b63SOI\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5247\u5229\u7528\u55ae\u8b8a\u6578ARMA\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f5cWrig ht( 1975)\u4e4b\u5b63SOI\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790,\u767c\u73feAR(2)\u6700\u80fd\u5920\u63cf\u8ff0\u8a72SOI\u4e4b\u6642\u9593\u57df\u7279\u6027\u3002\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u7684AR(2)\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884cSOI\u4e4b\u9810\u5831<strong>,<\/strong>\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u548cChu and Katz (1985)\u4e4b\u7d50\u679c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u826f\u597d\u3002<br>\u3000\u3000\u672c\u6587\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4ee5\u591a\u8b8a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u5f0f,\u5373\u5411\u91cfARMA\u6a21\u5f0f\u5206\u6790Tahiti \u6e1b Darwin \u6c23\u58d3\u5dee\u7684\u6708SOI\u548c\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6,\u4e2d\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7def\u5411\u98a8\u901f,\u4ee5\u53ca\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u7b49\u5e7e\u500b\u5357\u65b9\u632f\u76ea\u5206\u91cf\u9593\u7684\u56de\u994b\u904e\u7a0b,\u4e26\u9032\u884cSOI\u7684\u9810\u5831\u3002\u5f97\u5230SOI\u8207\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6\u9593\u4e4bARMA(1,6;1)\u6a21\u5f0f,SOI\u8207\u7def\u5411\u98a8\u5834\u9593\u7684ARMA(1,2;1)\u6a21\u5f0f\u53caSOI\u8207\u96e8\u91cf\u8ddd\u5e73\u9593\u7684ARMA(1,2;1)\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7d50\u679c\u4e26\u986f\u793aSOI,\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6,\u548c\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u7686\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u6027,\u800c\u7def\u5411\u98a8\u901f\u5247\u5426\u3002\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6,\u7def\u5411\u98a8\u901f\u53ca\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u7686\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u9818\u5148\u7684SOI\u5f71\u97ff,\u800cSOI\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u9818\u5148\u7684\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6\u3001\u98a8\u548c\u964d\u6c34\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5247\u4e0d\u660e\u986f\u3002\u5f9e\u7d71\u8a08\u4e0a\u4f86\u770b,\u5927\u6c23\u5c0d\u6d77\u6d0b\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528,\u800c\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u56de\u994b\u5247\u4e0d\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u3002\u4ee5\u6240\u7372\u5f97\u4e4b\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884cSOI\u4e4b\u9810\u5831,\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\u4ee5\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6\u8207SOI\u4f86\u9810\u5831\u8981\u8f03\u4ee5\u5411\u98a8\u901f\u8207SOI,\u6216\u8005\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u8207SOI\u4f86\u9810\u5831\u4f86\u5f97\u597d\u3002\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\uff1a\u591a\u8b8a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u5357\u65b9\u632f\u76ea\u3001\u56de\u994b\u904e\u7a0b\u3001\u9810\u5831<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jet_sm_ready_style":"","_jet_sm_style":"","_jet_sm_controls_values":"","_jet_sm_fonts_collection":"","_jet_sm_fonts_links":"","footnotes":""},"keyword":[2821,2822,2820,2143],"doc_categories":[1537,1535],"class_list":["post-29879","doc_journal","type-doc_journal","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","keyword-2821","keyword-2822","keyword-2820","keyword-2143","doc_categories-jas-1986-1995","doc_categories-jas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/29879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/doc_journal"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/29879\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=29879"},{"taxonomy":"doc_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_categories?post=29879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}