{"id":18520,"date":"2021-11-17T15:08:17","date_gmt":"2021-11-17T07:08:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/140.137.32.20\/dbar\/?post_type=manual_documentation&p=18520"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:45:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T13:45:50","slug":"%e8%ab%87%e5%8d%b3%e6%99%82%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%a3%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1","status":"publish","type":"doc_journal","link":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/doc_journal\/%e8%ab%87%e5%8d%b3%e6%99%82%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%a3%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8ac7\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6f58\u5927\u7db1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u3001\u524d\u8a00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3000\u3000\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u96fb\u8166\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u9032\u6b65\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4ee5\u53ca\u9059\u611f\u63a2\u6e2c\u4e0a\u7684\u7a81\u98db\u731b\u9032\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u4f7f\u5f97\u5229\u7528\u5176\u539f\u7406\u4f86\u89c0\u6e2c\u5927\u6c23\u7684\u5100\u5668\u7121\u8ad6\u5728\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5747\u4ee5\u5927\u5e45\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6c23\u8c61\u4eba\u54e1\u5c0d\u601d\u8003\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u9019\u4e9b\u5148\u9032\u7684\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u597d\u3001\u66f4\u5feb\u53ca\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u6216\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u300c\u6975\u77ed\u671f\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u300d(Very–short-range forecasting)\u8207\u300c\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u300d(Nowcasting) \u7684\u96db\u578b\u4e5f\u5c31\u61c9\u904b\u800c\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6975\u77ed\u671f\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u662f\u6307\u6642\u9593\u9577\u5ea6\u57280~3\u5c0f\u6642(\u62160~ 12\u5c0f\u6642)\u4e4b\u5167\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u800c\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u6642\u9593\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5247\u662f\u7531 0~1\u5c0f\u6642(\u62160~2\u5c0f\u6642)\u4e4b\u5167\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u5c31\u7a7a\u9593\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u9810\u5831\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u8207\u5c0d\u8c61\u5747\u662f\u5e7e\u516c\u91cc~\u5e7e\u767e\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9664\u4e86\u6642\u9593\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u8003\u91cf\u7a0d\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u5747\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684( Mc Ginley\uff0c1986;Browning\uff0c1982; Qrlanski\uff0c1975)\u3002\u672c\u6587\u96d6\u4ee5\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u70ba\u6587\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e2d\u4ea6\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u6975\u77ed\u671f\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9664\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e4b\u9810\u5831\u6642\u9593\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5169\u8005\u4e92\u7570\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u9918\u5247\u76f8\u540c\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u500b\u522b\u7684\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71\u67b6\u69cb\u53ef\u56e0\u4e3b\u3001\u5ba2\u89c0\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0a\u4e4b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684 \u786c\u9ad4\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u95dc\u786c\u9ad4\u67b6\u69cb\u7684\u90e8\u4efd\u4ea6\u672a\u6df1\u4eba\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u91dd\u5c0d\u7cfb\u7d71\u8a2d\u8a08\u8207\u898f\u5283\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u5374\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u5171\u901a\u6027\u8207\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u8003\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3000\u3000\u7531\u65bc\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u786c\u3001\u8edf\u9ad4\u4ee5\u53ca\u9810\u5831\u54e1\u5982\u4f55\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u9f90\u5927\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u9054\u6210\u6b64\u4e00\u201d\u5373\u6642\u9810\u5831\u201d\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u9996\u5c07\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u52a0\u4ee5\u4ecb\u7d39\uff0c\u5f8c\u7e8c\u5c07\u53e6\u5916\u91dd\u5c0d\u540c\u4e00\u4e3b\u984c\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5411\u518d\u505a\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9059\u6e2c\u6280\u8853\u548c\u901a\u8a0a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u9019\u500b\u4e3b\u984c\u4e0a\u626e\u6f14\u8457\u76f8\u7576\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u91dd\u5c0d\u96f7\u9054\u3001\u885b\u661f\u6c23\u8c61\u5b78\u3001\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6c23\u8c61\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u53ca\u4eba\u6750\u57f9\u80b2\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u90fd\u5c07\u662f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u5730\u4e3b\u5c0e\u4e86\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u6210\u529f\u8207\u5426\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3000\u3000\u5929\u6c23\u904b\u52d5\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u81ea1960\u5e74\u4ee3\u8fc4\u4eca\uff0c\u5df2\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u6c23\u8c61\u4eba\u54e1\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u8207\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u77ad\u89e3\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5927\u6c23\u904b\u52d5\u5b58\u5728\u8457\u7e41\u5bc6\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u89f8\u767c\u7522\u751f\u5929\u6c23\u4e4b\u6a5f\u5236\u8207\u73fe\u8c61\u4ea6\u6709\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u660e\u986f\u53c8\u6025\u9a5f\u4e14\u5145\u6ee1\u7834\u58de\u6027\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\u5982\u96f7\u96e8\u3001\u8c6a\u96e8\u3001\u51b0\u96f9\u3001\u9f8d\u6372\u98a8\u53ca\u5404\u7a2e\u578b\u5f0f\u7684\u4e82\u6d41\u7b49\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5bc6\u96c6\u767c\u5c55\u53c8\u4eba\u53e3\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u6216\u4e00\u822c\u8fb2\u5de5\u3001\u5546\u696d\u6d3b\u52d5\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8457\u5be6\u5730\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u9245\u5927\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\u8207\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\u6240\u860a\u6db5\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53c8\u6b63\u597d\u662f\u6c23\u8c61\u4eba\u54e1\u8a8d\u8b58\u8207\u77ad\u89e3\u8f03\u5c11\u7684\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3000\u3000\u50b3\u7d71\u5929\u6c23(\u5be6\u70ba\u6c23\u8c61)\u9810\u5831\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u6839\u64da\u7d9c\u89c0\u5c3a\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7a7a\u89c0\u6e2c\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u8cc7\u6599\u914d\u5408\u5730\u9762\u89c0\u6e2c\uff0c\u6536\u96c6\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6240\u5f97\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u6578\u503c\u3001\u52d5\u529b\u4e0a\u4e0d\u65b7\u7684\u77ad\u89e3\u8207\u9032\u5c55 \uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5c0d\u65bc1~2\u5929\u7684\u9810\u5831\u5df2\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u4ee4\u4eba\u6eff\u610f\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u50c5\u7ba1\u6709\u4e9b\u4f5c\u696d\u55ae\u4f4d\u63a1\u7528\u4e86\u8f03\u70ba\u7d30\u5bc6\u7db2\u683c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f(\u5982Fine-mesh model)\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\u3001\u8d77\u59cb\u5834\u548c(\u6216)\u7269\u7406\u8ad6\u64da( Physical realism)\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u65bc12\u5c0f\u6642\u4ee5\u5167\u7684\u5340\u57df\u6027(\u5c40\u90e8\u6027)\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e26\u7121\u660e\u986f\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9032\u6216\u7a81\u7834( Browning 1982)\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u6176\u5e78\u7684\u662f\u5728\u8fd1\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u89c0\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5be6\u9a57\u8207\u8a08\u5283\u4e4b\u57f7\u884c\u8207\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u8c50\u78a9\u7684\u6210\u679c\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5730\u589e\u9032\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5929\u6c23\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u8a8d\u8b58\u8207\u77ad\u89e3\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u7a2e\u7cbe\u5bc6\u79d1\u6280\u4e4b\u61c9\u7528\u8207\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5c65\u884c\u6975\u77ed\u671f\u53ca\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u5df2\u6210\u719f\u4e26\u5f97\u4ee5\u4ed8\u8af8\u5be6\u884c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3000\u3000\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u540d\u7a31(Nowcasting)\uff0c\u65e9\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u5c31\u884d\u751f\u51fa\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\u8a08\u5283\u5c31\u63a1\u7528\u4e86\u6b64\u4e00\u540d\u7a31(Chesapeake Bay Region Nowncasting Experiment )\uff0c \u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5c07\u540c\u6b65\u885b\u661f\u8cc7\u6599\u3001\u96f7\u9054\u8cc7\u6599\u8207\u5176\u5b83\u76f8\u95dc\u4e4b\u6c23\u8c61\u8cc7\u6599\u52a0\u4ee5\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u53ca\u6642\u5730\u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u5730\u5340\u6027\u7684\u793e\u5340\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u72c0\u51b5\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\u524d\u9762\u66fe\u7d93\u63d0\u904e\u5373\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u8207\u6975\u77ed\u671f\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u7570\u540c\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5c31\u5176\u904b\u4f5c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6b64\u4e8c\u8005\u5747\u662f\u5c07\u4e0d\u540c\u578b\u5f0f\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u8cc7\u6599\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u50b3\u905e\u3001\u6536\u96c6\u4e4b\u65bc\u67d0\u8655\uff0c\u800c\u5f8c\u6574\u5408\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\u7576\u6642\u5df2\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\u8207\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u904b\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5 (\u5982\u7dab\u6027\u5916\u63a8\uff0c\u6216\u52d5\u529b\u6cd5\u5247\u7b49\u7b49)\u5224\u65b7\u51fa\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u53d7\u5230\u660e\u986f\u5929\u6c23\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f37\u5ea6\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u5f8c\u900f\u904e\u66a2\u901a\u4e14\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u901a\u8a0a\u7db2\uff0c\u5c0d\u7576\u6642\u7684\u4eba\u9069\u6642\u5730\u63d0\u51fa\u9810\u8b66\u30021970\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7531\u65bc\u53d7\u5230\u8af8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u9650\u5236 \uff72\u7576\u7136\u7121\u6cd5\u5713\u6eff\u7684\u9054\u6210\u6b64\u4e00\u9805\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u5374\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b8c\u6210\u6b64\u9805\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jet_sm_ready_style":"","_jet_sm_style":"","_jet_sm_controls_values":"","_jet_sm_fonts_collection":"","_jet_sm_fonts_links":"","footnotes":""},"keyword":[],"doc_categories":[1551,1547],"class_list":["post-18520","doc_journal","type-doc_journal","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","doc_categories-qjm-1981-1990","doc_categories-qjm"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/18520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/doc_journal"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18520"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_journal\/18520\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=18520"},{"taxonomy":"doc_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/doc_categories?post=18520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}