{"id":17880,"date":"2021-11-11T15:08:46","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T07:08:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/140.137.32.20\/dbar\/?post_type=manual_documentation&#038;p=17880"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:45:25","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T13:45:25","slug":"%e6%a2%85%e9%9b%a8%e5%ad%a3%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e4%b9%8b%e4%bd%9c%e6%a5%ad%e8%a9%b1%e6%8e%a2%e8%a8%8e","status":"publish","type":"doc_journal","link":"https:\/\/asrad.pccu.edu.tw\/dbar\/doc_journal\/%e6%a2%85%e9%9b%a8%e5%ad%a3%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e4%b9%8b%e4%bd%9c%e6%a5%ad%e8%a9%b1%e6%8e%a2%e8%a8%8e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6885\u96e8\u5b63\u9577\u671f\u9810\u5831\u4e4b\u4f5c\u696d\u8a71\u63a2\u8a0e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-center eplus-Sh5Fez wp-block-paragraph\">\u9673\u6cf0\u7136<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center eplus-LQlnJt wp-block-paragraph\">\u570b\u7acb\u53f0\u7063\u5927\u5b78\u5927\u6c23\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center eplus-S5MaQ9 wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u3001\u524d\u8a00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-y43G9N wp-block-paragraph\">\u3000\u3000\u5728\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u8207\u5be6\u4f5c\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u57fa\u790e\u3001\u61c9\u7528\u3001\u6280\u8853\u767c\u5c55\u8207\u4f5c\u696d\u5316\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5c07\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u65e5\u5e38\u9810\u5831\u4f5c\u696d\u4e0a\uff0c\u70ba\u6c23\u8c61\u4f5c\u696d\u55ae\u4f4d\u6700\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u8ab2\u984c\u3002\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u6027\u8cea\uff0c\u4f9d\u9810\u5831\u671f\u9650\u53ca\u4e3b\u5bb0\u5929\u6c23\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u74b0\u6d41\u7cfb\u7d71\u6642\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u53ef\u5283\u5206\u6210\u4e09\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"eplus-FUT1XG 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1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ea6\u70ba\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u6c23\u8c61\u6e2c\u5831\u4f5c\u696d\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5176\u6240\u727d\u6d89\u5230\u79d1\u5b78\u77e5\u8b58\u3001\u6280\u8853(\u89c0\u6e2c\u3001\u901a\u8a0a\u3001\u986f\u793a\u3001\u5206\u6790\u3001\u8a3a\u65b7\u3001\u6574\u5408\u2026.)\u8207\u9810\u5831\u4eba\u54e1\u7dca\u5bc6\u7d50\u5408\u4e4b\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u8aaa\u662f\u570b\u969b\u6c23\u8c61\u754c\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u7684\u6700\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"eplus-ZPriU1 wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u9010\u65e5\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\uff1a\u73fe\u4eca\u4f5c\u696d\u7684\u6578\u503c\u6a21\u5f0f(\u4e2d\u3001\u7f8e\u3001\u65e5\u3001\u6b50\u2026.)\u5c0d\u4e3b\u5bb0\u9010\u65e5\u5929\u6c23\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u7d9c\u89c0\u5c3a\u5ea6\u74b0\u6d41\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7def\u5ea6\u5730\u5340\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u9010\u65e5\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b(\u4ee5\u8ddd\u5e73\u76f8\u95dc\u5f97\u5206\u70ba\u4f9d\u64da)\u7d04\u70ba\u4e00\u661f\u671f(\u4f8b\u5982:Saha and Van Den Dool\uff0c1988)\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4e00\u822c\u6240\u7528\u7684\u8ddd\u5e73\u76f8\u95dc\u5f97\u5206(anomaly correlation score\uff0cAC)\uff0c\u4fc2\u63a1\u7528Miyakoda et al.(1972)\u4e4b\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u7576AC\u5927\u65bc0.50~0.60\u6642\u7684\u9810\u5831\u5716\uff0c\u5728\u7e31\u89c0\u5929\u6c23\u5206\u6790\u9810\u5831\u4e0a\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u5177\u6709\u9810\u5831\u50f9\u503c(\u4f8b\u5982:Hollingsworth et al.\uff0c1980)\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u6b64\u6642\u9810\u5831\u5716\u8207\u89c0\u6e2c\u5716\u4e4b\u9593\u5b58\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u986f\u8457\u7684\u5c0d\u61c9\u74b0\u6d41\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7f8e\u570b\u6c23\u8c61\u5b78\u6703\u6240\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u6280\u8853\/\u80fd\u529b\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u5317\u534a\u7403\u3001\u4e2d\u9ad8\u7def\u5ea6\u3001\u9678\u5730\u4e0a\u7684\u9010\u65e5\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\uff0c3~5\u5929\u4e4b\u6eab\u5ea6\u8207\u964d\u6c34\u9810\u5831\u70ba\uff1a\u6eab\u5ea6\u7b2c3\u5929\u4f73\uff0c\u7b2c5\u5929\u5c1a\u53ef\uff1b\u964d\u6c34\u8207\u5426\u7b2c3\u5929\u5c1a\u53ef\uff0c\u7b2c5\u5929\u50c5\u5177\u4e9b\u5fae\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u7b2c\u516d\u5929\u81f3\u7b2c7\u5929\u9010\u65e5\u6700\u9ad8\u6eab\u4ecd\u6709\u4e2d\u5ea6\u80fd\u529b\uff0c6~10\u5929\u4e4b\u5e73\u5747\u6eab\u5ea6\u8207\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u6709\u4e9b\u6280\u8853\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-QmfS2t 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Forecast\uff0cDERF)\u80fd\u529b(\u4ee5\u8ddd\u5e73\u76f8\u95dc\u5f97\u5206\u70ba\u6e96)\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u500b\u6848\u4e4b1~30\u5929\u5e73\u5747\u4e4b\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f97\u5206\u5747\u8f03\u6301\u7e8c\u6cd5\u9810\u5831\u70ba\u9ad8\uff0c\u7531\u6240\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5341\u5929\u91cd\u758a\u5e73\u5747(1~10\u5929\uff0c6~15\u5929\uff0c11~20\u5929\uff0c16~2\u6578\u5929\uff0c21~30\u5929)\u767c\u73fe\uff0c30\u5929\u5e73\u5747\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\u4e3b\u8981\u4fc2\u7531\u524d\u534a\u6bb5\u7684\u9810\u5831\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u4ea6\u53731~30\u5929\u5e73\u5747\u4e4b\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u524d\u534a\u6642\u6bb5\u3002\u5176\u5c0d\u6642\u9593\u5e73\u5747\u4e4b\u9810\u5831\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4e26\u767c\u73fe\u4ee5\u524d7\u5929\u548c8\u5929\u4e4b\u5e73\u5747\u5373\u8db3\u4ee5\u4ee3\u886830\u5929\u4e4b\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u82e5\u6b32\u505a\u6708\u9810\u5831\u50c5\u9808\u7a4d\u52061\u661f\u671f\u6c42\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u5373\u53ef\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u6c23\u8c61\u5b78\u6703\u5c0d\u65bc\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\u6708\u3001\u5b63\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u8a55\u4f30(BAMS\uff0c1991)\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5e73\u5747\u6eab\u5ea6\u8207\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u5b58\u5728\u4e9b\u5fae\u80fd\u529b(\u6eab\u5ea6\u8f03\u964d\u6c34\u7a0d\u597d)\uff0c\u4f46\u7121\u9010\u65e5\u9810\u5831\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p 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